FA Cup Quarterfinal, Man City vs Liverpool: Poor Long Passing, Liverpool Struggles to Fly Far

While Man City strives to integrate long passes into their tactics to exploit the advantages of their current strikers, Liverpool is unable to adjust to such a strategy.

Although the goals did not originate from long passes, they influenced how both teams operated to achieve the outcome. In the 1-2 loss to Man City at Anfield two months ago, The Kops made 65 long passes (16.7%), compared to 53 from the opponent (11.7%). However, their accuracy rate was only about 68%, versus 81.1% for the visiting team.

Transitioning Like Man City

Since January up to now, Man City averages around 35 long passes per match. This indicates a fundamental shift in the team's approach towards a more pragmatic style. Because Donnarumma is not a goalkeeper skilled in building attacking play, and employing long passes helps mitigate that weakness.

It also proves effective as Pep Guardiola possesses players capable of competing in aerial duels like Haaland, Semenyo, Rodri, Silva, and Nico O’Reilly, who are naturally suited for such situations. On the other hand, according to Opta statistics, the seven teams that executed the fewest short passes last season each committed over 30 errors leading to opponent shots, including Man City.

Against Newcastle, a team known for aggressive and physical play, Rodri won 86% of duels, Semenyo 100%, Bernardo 83%, and O’Reilly over two-thirds. Haaland performed similarly. This is not coincidental.

In the League Cup final against Arsenal, one of the two teams that play the most long passes in England, Man City executed 48 long passes, two fewer than their opponent, with an accuracy rate of 83.2% compared to Arsenal's 64.7%.

"If you can't beat them, join them," the Spanish strategist remarked on Man City adapting to the direct, physically intense, long-ball, and compact formation style of English football this season. The idea behind long passes is to attack, exploit gaps, not to build play through dense defenses from the back.

The Citizens are working to refine the accuracy of long passes for Haaland and Semenyo. The 55-year-old coach began to believe that just one good coordination between the goalkeeper and center-back can create an opportunity. The outcome of a match against Liverpool could hinge on that straightforward approach.

Passive Like Liverpool

"The difference is we had to defend against 178 long balls in 7 matches; before Brighton, we had to handle 61 long balls. Liverpool must adjust, that's what we are trying to do," Coach Arne Slot said after the loss to Brighton.

In that match, The Kops also faced 16 open crosses and conceded two goals from them. Opta calculated that Slot's team has faced 1283 long passes since the start of the Premier League season, at least 46 more than any other team, a staggering number that has severely harmed Liverpool.

In the defeat to Man United, The Kops had to deal with 75 long passes out of 294 passes by the Red Devils at Anfield with a minimum distance of 32 meters, excluding throw-ins, goalkeeper throws, and crossing situations.

With a rate of 25.5%, this is the highest long-ball ratio they've faced in a Premier League match since 2017 against Arsenal (27.9%). By match, the three games with the highest long-pass counts this season all involved opponents of Liverpool, besides the Man United match, they also handled 71 long passes against Crystal Palace and 70 against Bournemouth.

Additionally, they faced 63 long passes in the loss to Galatasaray in the first leg. The team that played the fewest long passes against Liverpool was Arsenal (34 passes) in the 0-0 draw between the two teams in January.

Poor defense against long passes creates specific issues in second-ball situations, failing to recover the ball early and disrupting the defensive system. The Kops have engaged in 417 aerial duels so far, winning 179 of them (42%) and only securing 54 second balls (12.5%).

Playing long balls against Liverpool also aims to limit The Kops' counterattacks. Last season, they averaged 8.1 counterattacks, but this has dropped to 6.0 this season.

Clearly, the Dutch coach's team has not acclimated to long-ball play. The consequence is a drastic decline in both quality and stature of the club. If Man City exploits this style at Etihad, it will be a major problem for Liverpool.