The final AFC U23 Asian Cup: Opportunities and risks coexist, and two wins against the underdogs are not enough to ensure qualification

Reporter Chen Yong and Han Bing report On May 29, the 2026 U23 Asian Cup qualifiers were drawn in groups, and the Chinese team (currently known as the U22 national football team, hereinafter referred to as the U22 national football team) and Australia, Timor-Leste and the Northern Mariana were in a group. For the U22 national team, it is natural to have more clean sheets against two weak teams, but if they want to ensure qualification, they will have to fight for points from Australia.

The U23 Asian Cup will be held in Saudi Arabia in January 2026 and will be the last of the non-Olympic age group, and from the next edition, the U23 Asian Cup will only be held in the Olympic age group, which is actually the Olympic preliminary round.

The 2026 U23 Asian Cup qualifiers are divided into 11 groups, with the first place in each group and the best four second places finished, who will qualify for the finals with the host Saudi Arabia. At present, all 11 groups are four teams, and the group stage is a single round-robin format, and in the absence of a team exiting, theoretically all the results of the matches will have an impact on the final qualification.

In terms of grouping, Timor-Leste and Northern Mariana are clearly seen as targets for more goal difference, but it should be noted that although the U22 national football team reached the quarterfinals of the U20 Asian Cup in 2023, the team's strength at that time was defense, and attack was not a specialty. However, with the addition of a group of talented offensive players in the 05 age group, such as Wang Yudong and Liu Chengyu, who are currently selected for the national football team, as well as Kuai Jiwen, Mao Weijie, Zhu Pengyu and others in the 05 age group, the attack power of the U22 national football team is also improving.

However, in order to qualify for the finals, it is not safe to get enough goal difference from the two weaker opponents, and in the 11 groups, it is not excluded that there are about 4 groups in which the two strong teams will draw, so it is very likely that the two teams will have 7 points.

In that case, the Under-22 national team's journey to qualifying may not be as easy as they imagined, as they will need to get at least one point from Australia, which is to ensure seven points, and then get enough goal difference to secure qualification from the group, and if they can beat Australia, it will go without saying.

The Under-22 squad is currently training intensively, with the team playing two matches against Myanmar before flying to Belarus for a warm-up game.

The U22 national football training camp coincided with the U20 age group to play the National Games qualifiers, and the U22 national football team only recruited 3 U20 players Wang Yifan, He Yiran and Xuan Zhijian who had no tasks. In addition, two U17 players, Wei Xiangxin and Bu Niamin, were also recruited.

For the U22 national football team, the future task is actually very simple: first, the core task is naturally to play a good game with Australia, so it is necessary to be fully prepared in terms of game intensity, rhythm, defense, counterattack, etc.; Second, taking into account the goal difference, the Chinese team should fully carry out offensive drills, which involves the problem of midfield organization.

The two tasks are somewhat conflicting, Antonio's coaching of the 03 national youth is mainly based on defense and counter-attack, which is actually very suitable for Australia, but in order to improve the attack, the control of the midfield must be improved.

It is worth noting that Antonio is also changing, and the Under-22s have also started to increase the ball in midfield compared to before, but it is still relatively simple, with the aim of launching quick attacks more effectively, rather than real control.

The U22 national football team will train again during the national football team's participation in the East Asian Cup, when the U20 players can fully return, which is also the best opportunity for them to practice their lineup and tactics.

It won't be easy to pick up points from Australia, who have qualified for six consecutive Under-23 Asian Cup finals since 2013, reaching the semi-finals in 2020 and 2022 and finishing third in 2020. Currently, Australia's youth coach is former international Widmar, who previously coached Australia's Under-17 squad and has been Under-23 coach since May 2022. However, in the U23 Asian Cup as a preliminary round of the Paris Olympics last year, he led the team to 2 draws, 1 loss and zero goals to stop the group stage and missed the Olympic Games.

Most of Australia's players are from the Australian Super League, with three South Sudanese attackers being the biggest names. The 21-year-old striker Toure played for Reims in Ligue 1 in the 2022/23 season, played for Paris FC in Ligue 2 last season, and switched to Lannes in the Danish Super League this season, with 9 goals and 4 assists in 27 league appearances, which is the team's silver boot; The 20-year-old Pior played for Macarthur in the Australian Super League this season, with three goals and one assist in nine Australian Super League games. He joined Real Salt Lake City in the North American major leagues at the beginning of the year, but scored only one goal in 12 appearances.

The 20-year-old winger is the most famous, at the beginning of 2023, he joined Newcastle United, and has been loaned to the Scottish Premier League and the Eredivisie, and will only play in the reserve league this season. However, he has 5 goals and 4 assists in 11 appearances, and his efficiency is amazing. Kuor, who made his senior international debut back in 2022 and entered the 2022 World Cup as the youngest player in team history, has not been selected for the senior national team since March 2023.

In addition, right-back Bovallina plays for Vancouver Whites in the Major League Soccer. In addition, Bayern second team goalkeeper Pavlesic, who participated in the Doha Invitational in March, and Serie A Lecce defender Esposito, it is not surprising that they can be selected for the qualifiers. It is worth mentioning that Widma's son Kane plays as a central defender, and has been selected for the U23 national youth team in March, and there is a high probability that the father and son will play side by side in September.

In March, Australia played well in the Doha U23 Cup Invitational Tournament, 2-1 Croatia, 0-0 UAE and 2-2 Qatar. In June, they will also play two warm-up matches against the South Korean national youth team.

Timor-Leste only began to participate in the U22 Asian Youth Championship/U23 Asian Cup in 2013, and the group stage of the first six qualifiers was only one win in each session, all of which were won against the weakest team in the group.

As for the Northern Marianas, which only became a full member of the AFC at the end of 2020, although it has been a member of the East Asian Football Confederation since 2008 and has participated in 8 East Asian Cup qualifiers, this is the first time to register for the U23 Asian Cup.